Trump 2.0 KPIs - Shifting the needle on real potential US GDP growth and boosting real US disposable incomes.
Impact of tariffs and tax cuts risks another bond vigilante move with breakevens already at higher levels
Growth has continued to outperform Value. Small cap has marginally outperformed large cap over three months but saw negative returns in January.
Growth sees a 5yr annualized return of 17.9% vs 10.7% for value.
Markets have continued to rein in expectations over the size and tempo of US rate cuts in 2025.
The potential inflationary impact of Trump 2.0 could hamper the Fed’s ability to bring down rates as much as previously expected.
The US 12month forward PE is close to 2024 highs but still around 10% below 2021’s peak level.
The US equity-risk premium is on the cusp of turning negative, similar to levels seen in the run up to the TMT bubble.
Double-digit growth and significantly less Mag-7 distortion forecast for US EPS growth in 2025
Policies during Trump’s first term also initially resulted in a sharp rise in both US net profit margins and Return on Equity.
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form
