2022 has seen persistent strength in the US dollar aided by positive interest rate differentials, haven status and the perception the US is less exposed to the Ukraine invasion energy shock. Exhibit 1 shows the long-term performance of the DXY dollar index and the 16.8% YTD return has pushed the dollar back to levels not seen since the turn of the century.
Exhibit 1: The dollar is back to levels last seen over 20 years ago
The quantum of the appreciation of the dollar accentuates regional equity return differences
FX swings can have a large impact on unhedged regional equity returns depending on the location of investors. Due to GBP, Euro and JPY weakness, investors in the UK, Europe and Japan have a very different perception of regional market returns based in GBP, Euro and JPY versus the returns seen by a US dollar-based investor over both Q3 and YTD periods. For instance, it can be seen in exhibit 2 that UK unhedged investors (courtesy of the 8.2% decline in the pound) saw a positive return from US equities in Q3.
Exhibit 2: Comparing UK and US (unhedged) equity return profiles for Q3
The strength of the dollar is mitigating the impact of declining commodity prices
Most commodity prices are denominated in dollars. Consequently, when the dollar appreciates it offsets the impact of any fall in prices to non - US dollar-based participants (and vice versa). For instance, exhibit 3 shows that although the oil price declined 22% in Q3 in dollar terms, due to the depreciation of sterling, euro, and the yen against the dollar the oil price drop denominated in those currencies is more muted. The distortion of the move in the dollar on the regional oil price is even more extreme looking at two-year data.
Exhibit 3: The impact of the dollar on regional oil price moves
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